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As the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stands on the brink of a pivotal decision on cryptocurrencies, the cryptosphere is abuzz with anticipation regarding the approval of exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. Spot bitcoin.
With a window open until November 17, the SEC is evaluating a dozen applications, including Grayscale’s conversion of its GBTC trust product.
Will the SEC finally give the green light to a spot btc ETF?
While the approval of a bitcoin spot ETF is not assured, regulators and cryptocurrency enthusiasts alike are eagerly awaiting the SEC’s decision.
The initial rejection of the first bitcoin ETF filing in 2017, driven by concerns about a lack of regulation in crypto markets and the potential for market manipulation, marked the beginning of a convoluted and ongoing regulatory journey.
However, the regulator has expressed concerns about the ability to consistently track and ensure the security and custody of assets. Additionally, questions have been raised about the resilience of trading venues and the ability of the bitcoin market to handle the increased volume that would result from the introduction of a spot ETF.
The SEC has an eight-day window, from November 8 to 17, to approve the first bitcoin spot ETF, even if the decision is delayed beyond November 17.
Bloomberg analysts predict that if a bitcoin spot ETF is not approved in this period, there is still a 90% chance of approval by January 10, 2024.
In June, demand for a spot bitcoin ETF resurfaced with a filing from BlackRock, prompting a flurry of filings from other issuers vying to gain SEC approval.
BlackRock’s bid for a bitcoin spot ETF has generated optimism that it will be approved, although experts have different opinions on the likelihood of its acceptance.
The SEC, in response to filings from asset managers, has expressed reservations, stating that the requests lack clarity and require additional information for consideration.
Experts say the SEC could rule on applications for a spot bitcoin ETF in the coming months, as deadlines quickly approach.
Despite fresh speculation that the SEC will soon say something about asset managers’ filings inducing BlackRock and Fidelity due to a rebuttal period that ended this week after they were last delayed in September 2023.
The market is currently gearing up for the near-term approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, with potential implications for cryptocurrency prices and market dynamics. The approval of bitcoin spot ETFs is expected to have a significant impact on retail investment in the bitcoin market and could potentially influence investor behavior and market sentiment.
As the SEC’s decision on fund managers’ spot ETF offerings before November 17 remains uncertain, market analysts are closely monitoring regulatory developments and potential implications for the cryptocurrency market.
Schiff predicts another drop
Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff recently issued a warning about an impending market crash as bitcoin approaches $38,000 and leading contenders for a bitcoin spot ETF prepare for possible approval.
Schiff, a well-known cryptocurrency critic, anticipates that the introduction of a bitcoin ETF will precede a major decline in the cryptocurrency market.
It acknowledges bitcoin‘s gradual rise towards the $38,000 mark, driven by expectations of a timely approval of the bitcoin ETF by the SEC.
Despite this, Schiff maintains that by the time the ETF launches, many of the early adopters will have already purchased bitcoin. As these early buyers look to sell for profits, Schiff predicts a shortage of buyers for the ETF, causing the market to crash.
However, Schiff’s forecast has faced opposition from several cryptocurrency investors who warn against relying on this prediction, dismissing it as another addition to a series of inaccurate forecasts made by the economist.
