More tradition than coincidence, the Christmas season is once again around the corner and the market is looking good for a new bullfight. bitcoin (btc) rose above $35,000 in October, another record high for 2023. The year-long rally has been attributed to unconventional market trends, including enthusiasm over bitcoin spot ETF applications pending before the Exchange Commission and Values.
If, like me, you’ve been in the crypto space since 2014, you’ll agree that the holiday season comes with a feeling of euphoria, especially this year. Everyone seems to agree that a bull run is just around the corner, so it’s time to keep an eye on the market and explore unique opportunities in more than one niche, and contemplate your trading approach.
A conventional Christmas rally?
Christmas rallies bring excitement and joy to many in the crypto scene. Historically, the season brings with it an increase in trading volumes, significant market movements and sudden price increases. However, recent years have challenged conventions and market dynamics have been influenced by unprecedented factors. Take the global pandemic of 2020, along with Elon Musk’s tweets in 2021 and 2022. Cryptocurrencies have skyrocketed for reasons no one could predict.
Related: bitcoin beyond 35K for Christmas? Thanks to Jerome Powell if it happens.
Predicting the behavior of the cryptocurrency market is similar to forecasting the weather. It is a challenging endeavor. While previous years have brought December delights, this season is influenced by much more complex factors, including regulatory developments and geopolitical tensions.
Never mind ETFs: bitcoin halving is coming
Investors have been positioning themselves waiting for the SEC’s green light for a bitcoin ETF. The theory here is that an ETF will attract institutional investors to cryptocurrencies.
There is also the euphoria that the upcoming bitcoin halving event has brought to the market. The bitcoin halving event, scheduled for April 2024, is significant. It is tied to bitcoin‘s finite supply of 21 million coins. The main cryptocurrency is mainly issued through mining. bitcoin halving refers to the mechanism by which the number of new bitcoin created in each block is reduced by 50%. Occurs every 210,000 blocks (or approximately every four years). The halving ensures that bitcoin remains a scarce and highly sought after asset.
bitcoin at $100,000. Saying gold and silver money from GOD for years. bitcoin$ towns. Bad news IF the stock and bond market crashes and gold and silver soar. WORSE NEWS IF the world economy collapses BC $1 million gold $75 thousand silver at $60 thousand. FALSE US$ SAVERS F’d. DEBT too high. Mom, dad and children in…
—Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) August 14, 2023
The upcoming halving has led to big bitcoin price predictions. “Rich Dad Poor Dad” author Robert Kiyosaki believes it will reach at least $100,000. Max Keizer forecasts a new all-time high of $220,000. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor is, as always, extremely optimistic and predicts a price of $1 million. Predictions are based on both historical trends and social influences. These and other unconventional forces were behind the demonstration we witnessed in October.
In my opinion, bitcoin could comfortably surpass its all-time high of $69,000 and possibly surpass $169,000.
What happens if an ETF is not approved?
Analysts at financial services firm JPMorgan have suggested that if the SEC rejects the ETF applications before it, it could lead to legal action by applicants. A court already ruled in favor of Grayscale against the SEC in August, paving the way for Grayscale to convert its bitcoin trust into a spot ETF. BlackRock, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest and other firms are also in the race to gain ETF approval.
I’m sure it’ll be a lot more boring than this, but at times it feels like this is all a setup for a gigantic Gensler semi-comedy.
– Dave Nadig (@DaveNadig) October 30, 2023
Multiple spot bitcoin ETFs could be approved within months. At least for now, it seems inevitable, if not imminent.
Conflict in the Middle East
Geopolitical tensions and open wars are a wild card in the world of cryptocurrencies. The current conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas is a stark reminder of how external factors can affect the market. While the immediate implications may be unclear, investors have historically sought refuge in alternative assets—including cryptocurrencies—during global crises. So far, the war has not affected the cryptocurrency market, but as the situation develops, the market could see changes in sentiment and capital flow.
Three days after the war broke out, cryptocurrency prices fell and the price of oil soared after being hit by traders speculating that the war could disrupt supplies if it spread to neighboring nations like Iran. The world’s busiest shipping routes, such as the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Suez Canal, originate in the Middle East. This further increases the fear of economic danger if the situation worsens in these places.
Related: bitcoin is evolving into a multi-asset network
An expansion of the war to the Sinai Peninsula and the Suez region “increases the risks of an attack on the energy and non-energy trade that flows through the Suez Canal,” said Pat Thaker of The Economist Intelligence Unit. noted in a comment to CNBC, “and that represents almost 15% of global trade, almost 45% of crude oil, 9% of refining and also 8% of LNG tankers transiting that route.”
There has not been any significant effect on the cryptocurrency market so far, but if the conflict continues to escalate, it could result in increased price sensitivity as we head into the holiday season.
Altcoin season?
Traders are anxiously pondering the possibility of an “altcoin” season as the holiday seasons approach. Based on historical data (where we’ve seen previous alternate seasons in December 2017 and January 2021), we may see this streak begin more seriously in December. I’m counting on the next alt-season to begin in December (with the help of bitcoin ETF approvals) and last until bitcoin halving in April.
bitcoin is likely to stagnate at a relatively constant level until an ETF is approved, which means it may not be a bad time to start looking at altcoins. I’m particularly interested in niche sectors, including GameFi and tokenized real-world assets (RWA). (Obligatory disclaimer: I have been wrong in the past and could be wrong again.) When altcoin season begins, tokens with valuable use cases in these areas could be at the forefront of this race.
This holiday season promises a cryptocurrency bull run, but the path remains uncertain. The ETF debacle, global tensions and the potential of altcoins demand close monitoring. We can’t always predict the future, but we can prepare for it by staying informed, managing risks and seizing strategic opportunities. It’s not just about celebrating the holidays, but about embracing the future of finance in the always exciting world of cryptocurrencies.
Evan Luthra is a 28-year-old cryptocurrency entrepreneur who sold his first company, StudySocial, for $1.7 million at age 17 and had developed over 30 mobile apps by the time he was 18. He got involved with cryptocurrency in 2014 and is currently building HouseNFT. He has invested in over 400 crypto projects.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
