tesla (TSLA) – Get a free report Elon Musk has been saying for years that fully autonomous vehicles are right around the corner. He said in 2016 that it would only take two or three years for a Tesla to drive better than a human. When that didn’t happen, he said in 2018 that it would be possible to remotely summon a Tesla across the country.
And in 2019, he stated that robotaxis by 2020 were more than feasible.
“I know I’m the guy who cried FSD,” he said on Tesla’s second-quarter earnings conference call. “But man, I think we’ll be better than humans by the end of this year.”
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However, Tesla’s full self-driving remains stalled with one major caveat; Although the car can drive reasonably well in most situations, it requires the driver’s constant attention, which keeps the system at the Level Two designation.
What is currently preventing Tesla from making that long-awaited leap to a Level Three system, according to Omer Keilaf, CEO and co-founder of Innoviz Technologies, is Musk’s strange aversion to lidar, a system that uses lasers to determine range and distance. Innoviz is a global manufacturer of this technology since 2016.
The different levels of autonomy
A level one system, best exampled by something like adaptive cruise control, is a driver assistance program in which the driver maintains full control of the vehicle. A Level Two system, a designation currently held by Tesla’s FSD, is an advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) where the car can handle primary driving functions, but the driver must be prepared to take control (with hands and eyes).
Teslas will “annoy” if the driver takes their eyes off the road or hands off the wheel; Repeated violations may result in suspension of FSD access to that vehicle.
A level three system that Mercedes-Benz (DAIF) – Get a free report which has just started rolling out in the US, allows for conditional automation (hands off, eyes off). The conditions at this stage are specific and extremely limited; The outside environment must be clear and bright, the route must have been previously plotted by Mercedes, the car must be traveling less than 40 mph, and there must be a car in front of the Mercedes.
A level four vehicle, such as a robotaxi, is highly automated and requires no human interaction. It works on specific routes and is programmed to simply stop if the vehicle has any problems. And a Level Five autonomous system would be that “better than human” model that Musk always promises.
The problem with Tesla’s approach
For a system to achieve level three autonomy, it must have built-in redundancy in case the primary system fails. This redundancy allows for the “observation” approach.
In a Tesla, the main system is the car’s cameras and neural networks.
“Humans drive with eyes and biological neural networks, so it makes sense that silicon cameras and neural networks are the only way to achieve a widespread solution to autonomous driving,” Musk saying in 2021.
If that system fails, the only redundancy is the human driver.
“In the Level Two system, you have cameras that allow the car to make driving decisions, but if they fail (and they can fail due to low light conditions, direct sunlight, or a drop of water that throws the camera out of focus) you need something to stop it. support,” Keilaf told TheStreet in an interview. In a Tesla, that backup sensor “is actually the driver’s,” meaning your eyes must remain on the road at all times.
For an automated system to move away from Level Two, sensory support would be necessary.
“You need to have a sensor that can reverse the car, that can provide backup to the camera,” Keilaf said. “The only sensor that is capable of seeing enough resolution and range, etc. is the lidar; to zoom out the controller requires adding a lidar.”
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Although Musk remains convinced of the power of his cameras and neural networks, Keilaf said that, for now, the only way to take advantage of that redundancy is with lidar.
“I think it’s pretty clear today that they’re stuck in a glass ceiling,” Keilaf said of Tesla. “And I hope they adopt lidar at some point because they will be stuck in Tier Two and all the other car companies will surpass them just by using lidar.”
In fact, Mercedes’ Level Three Drive Pilot system takes advantage of lidar, radar, ultrasonic sensors and cameras, a combination that experts say is the only way to operate a truly safe autonomous car.
Although Keilaf is unsure when Level Four and Five systems will become the norm, building Level Three systems is the first step in getting to that point of overall autonomy.
“It’s a platform that will allow customers to continue to build trust. Ultimately it’s a question of trust because, from a vehicle capability standpoint, it’s already capable of achieving Level Five, it’s a question of whether it’s smart enough.” he said. “The more kilometers you travel, the more you can calculate your risk.”
Tesla is currently facing a series of investigations into the safety of its FSD technology. A lawsuit accusing Tesla of wrongful death in an Autopilot death went to trial on September 28.
