The Bitcoin and crypto markets have seen a strong weekly close. Bitcoin price rallied directly to the current key resistance at $28,600. After seven failed attempts, this puts the price once again just below the current key level separating BTC from $30,000.
A powerful price move will also benefit the broader crypto market, as the rotation in altcoins, also known as altcoin season, has yet to materialize. Therefore, Bitcoin and crypto investors should keep an eye on key macro data in the coming week.
Bitcoin and Crypto face these key events
After a quiet start to the week, one of the most important macro metrics for financial markets arrives on Wednesday, April 12, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). 8:30 am EST, expect to see more volatility in the Bitcoin and crypto markets.
Investors will be weighing whether the Fed can push another rate hike or hit the pause button on a stronger-than-expected drop in inflation combined with the latest US labor market data. CPI for the prior month was of 6.0% year-over-year (YoY) and 0.4% month-over-month (MoM).
In March, expectations are for the IPC YoY at 5.2% and 0.3% (MoM). A failure in expectations is likely to push Bitcoin lower as markets price in a higher probability of another Fed rate hike in May.
CME’s FedWatch tool currently shows a 61% probability of a 0.25% rate hike in May. If expectations are met or even exceeded, Bitcoin is likely to head north.
Later that day, on Wednesday, the FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00 pm EST. The minutes of the meeting will reveal more details about the Fed’s projections and considerations for the latest interest rate decision. This makes Wednesday the most important day of the week.
On Thursday, April 13, both the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Initial Jobless Claims will be released at 8:30 am EST. The PPI MoM is forecast to sit at 0.0% (previously -0.1%), while the PPI MoM Lead: is forecast to rise again to 0.3% (previously 0.0%).
Initial jobless claims are forecast at 216,000 and were previously 228,000. Already last week, figures from the US labor market and the ISM Private Sector Purchasing Managers’ Index showed small cracks in the US economy, while (the lagging indicator) the US unemployment rate The US sent a mixed signal and fell marginally (3.6% to 3.5%).
On Friday, April 14 at 8:30am, US Retail Sales will be released. March Retail Sales are expected to fall 0.5%m/m (previously -0.4%), while Core Retail Sales are expected to fall 0.4%m/m (previously -0.1%). The data should be viewed in the context of slowing economic growth and recession fears.
At press time, the BTC price was trading at $28,258. A daily or even weekly close for Bitcoin above $28,600 would be extremely bullish.
Featured Image from iStock, Chart from TradingView.com
