In December, staff at the American Institute of Writers and Artists, a 26-year-old membership organization for copywriters, realized something big was up.
The newest edition of ChatGPT, a “big language model” that mines the Internet to answer questions and perform on-demand tasks, has just been released. His skills were uncanny, and squarely in the purview of people who create content, like copywriting and blog posts, for a living.
“They are horrified,” said Rebecca Matter, president of the institute. Over the holidays, she rushed to host a webinar on the pitfalls and potential of new AI technology. More than 3,000 people signed up, she said, and the overall message was cautionary but reassuring: Writers could use ChatGPT to complete tasks faster and move to higher-level roles in content planning and search engine optimization. .
“I think it’s going to minimize short-form copy projects,” Ms. Matter said. “But on the other hand, I think there will be more opportunities for things like strategy.”
OpenAI’s ChatGPT is the latest development in a steady march of innovations that have offered the potential to transform many occupations and eliminate others, sometimes altogether. It is too soon to count the enabled and at risk, or to gauge the overall impact on labor demand and productivity. But it seems clear that artificial intelligence will affect work differently than previous waves of technology.
The positive view of tools like ChatGPT is that they could be complements to human work, rather than replacements. However, not all workers are optimistic about the possible impact.
Katie Brown is a grant writer in suburban Chicago for a small nonprofit group focused on addressing domestic violence. She was surprised to learn in early February that a professional association for grant writers was promoting the use of artificial intelligence software that would automatically fill in parts of an application, requiring humans to simply polish it before submitting.
The platform, called awardable, is based on the same technology as ChatGPT and is promoted to freelancers who charge for the app. That, he thought to her, clearly threatens opportunities in the industry.
“To me, it’s common sense: which do you think a small nonprofit will choose?” said Mrs. Brown. “A full-time person with salary plus benefits, or someone equipped with AI that you don’t have to pay benefits for?”
Artificial intelligence and machine learning have been operating in the background of many companies for years, helping to evaluate a large number of possible decisions and better align supply with demand, for example. And many technological advances over the centuries have lessened the need for certain workers, though each time, the jobs created have more than made up for the number lost.
ChatGPT, however, is the first to confront such a wide range of white-collar workers so directly and to be so accessible that people could use it in their own jobs. And it’s improving rapidly, with a new edition released this month. according to a survey Conducted by job search website ZipRecruiter after the launch of ChatGPT, 62 percent of job seekers said they were concerned that artificial intelligence could derail their careers.
“ChatGPT is the one that made it the most visible,” said Michael Chui, a fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute who studies the effects of automation. “So I think it started to raise questions about where timelines might start to speed up.”
Layoffs at Big Tech
After a wave of hiring from the pandemic, several tech companies are now pulling out.
- a growing list: Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Zoom and Meta are among the tech giants that have cut jobs amid concerns about an economic slowdown.
- Sales force: The company said it would lay off 10 percent of its staff, a move that appeared to run counter to co-founder and chief executive Marc Benioff’s stated commitment to his workers.
- New parents hit hard: At tech companies that have expanded paid parental leave in recent years, parents have felt the lash of mass layoffs especially viscerally.
- Technology generation gap: Recent cuts have been eye opening for young workers. But for older employees who experienced the dotcom crash, it hasn’t come as a surprise.
That is also the conclusion of a White House report about the implications of AI technology, including ChatGPT. “The main risk of AI to the workforce is the general disruption it is likely to cause to workers, whether they discover that their jobs are newly automated or that their job design has fundamentally changed,” the authors wrote.
By now, Guillermo Rubio has found that his job as a copywriter has changed dramatically since he started using ChatGPT to brainstorm blog post ideas, write early drafts of newsletters, create hundreds of slight variations on stock copy, and summon research on a topic you could write a white paper on.
Since he still charges his clients the same fees, the tool has simply allowed him to work less. However, if the current rate of copy drops, which it could, as technology improves, he’s confident he’ll be able to move into content strategy consulting along with production.
“I think people are more reluctant and fearful, for good reason,” said Rubio, who lives in Orange County, California. “You can see it negatively, or you can accept it. I think the most important thing is that you have to be adaptable. You have to be open to accept it.”
After decades of study, researchers know a lot about the impact of automation on the workforce. Economists, including Daron Acemoglu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, have found that since the 1980s, technology has played a major role in amplifying income inequality. As unions atrophied, hollowing out training and retraining systems, workers without a college education saw their bargaining power diminished against machines capable of performing rudimentary tasks.
However, the arrival of ChatGPT three months ago has sparked a series of studies that are based on the idea that this is not your average robot.
A team of researchers performed an analysis showing the industries and occupations that are most exposed to artificial intelligence, based on a model adjusted for generative language tools. Topping the list were college humanities professors, legal service providers, insurance agents, and telemarketers. However, mere exposure does not determine whether the technology is likely to replace workers or simply increase their skills.
Shakked Noy and Whitney Zhang, MIT PhD students, conducted a randomized controlled trial experienced professionals in fields such as human relations and marketing. Participants were assigned tasks that typically take 20 to 30 minutes, such as writing press releases and short reports. Those who used ChatGPT completed tasks 37 percent faster on average than those who didn’t, a substantial productivity boost. They also reported a 20 percent increase in job satisfaction.
One third study — using a program developed by GitHub, which is owned by Microsoft — evaluated the impact of generative AI specifically on software developers. In a test by GitHub researchers, developers given an entry-level task and encouraged to use the program, called Copilot, completed their task 55 percent faster than those who did the first. task manually.
Those productivity gains are unlike nearly any seen since the widespread adoption of the personal computer.
“He seems to be doing something fundamentally different,” said David Autor, another MIT economist who advises Zhang and Noy. “Before, computers were powerful, but they just robotically did what people programmed them to do.” Generative artificial intelligence, on the other hand, is “adaptive, learns, and is able to flexibly solve problems.”
That’s very evident to Peter Dolkens, a software developer at a company that primarily makes online tools for the sports industry. He has been integrating ChatGPT into his work for tasks like summarizing code snippets to help colleagues who can pick up the project after him and propose solutions to problems that have him stumped. If the answer isn’t perfect, it will ask ChatGPT to improve it or try something different.
“He’s the equivalent of a highly educated intern,” said Mr Dolkens, who is in London. “They may not have the experience to know how to apply it, but they know all the words, have read all the books, and are able to go part of the way.”
There is another takeaway from the initial research: ChatGPT and Copilot elevated less experienced workers more. If true, more generally, that could mitigate the inequality-increasing effects of artificial intelligence.
On the other hand, as each worker becomes more productive, fewer workers are required to complete a set of tasks. Whether that results in fewer jobs in particular industries depends on the demand for the service provided, and the jobs that could be created to help manage and direct AI. “Rapid engineering,” for example, is already a skill that those who play with ChatGPT long enough can add to their resumes.
Given that the demand for software code seems insatiable and developer salaries are extremely high, it seems unlikely that increased productivity will eliminate opportunities for people to break into this field.
That won’t be the same for all professions, though, and Dominic Russo is pretty sure it won’t be true of his: writing appeals to pharmacy benefit managers and insurance companies when they turn down prescriptions for expensive drugs. He has been doing the job for about seven years and has gained experience with just on-the-job training, after studying journalism in college.
After ChatGPT came out, he was asked to write an appeal on behalf of someone with psoriasis who wanted the expensive drug Otezla. The result was good enough to require only a few edits before shipping.
“If you knew what to goad the AI with, anyone could do the job,” Russo said. “That’s what really scares me. Why would a pharmacy pay me $70,000 a year, when they can license the technology and pay people $12 an hour to run the ads?
To try to protect himself from that possible future, Mr. Russo has been building his side business: Selling pizza from his home in southern New Jersey, a venture he says won’t be disrupted by artificial intelligence.
Still.
