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The market is at a critical crossroads as US President Donald Trump is yet to issue an executive order related to the Strategic bitcoin Reserve (SBR) or crypto. Renowned crypto analyst MacroScope (@MacroScope17) has <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/MacroScope17/status/1882035285501923730″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>revived the debate through x, questioning whether said reserve is already “discounted” in current market valuations.
Is Trump's bitcoin Stockpile Discounted?
The concept of an asset being “valued” refers to the idea that all known information about a potential event is already reflected in its current price. MacroScope draws parallels between the current speculation around an SBR and the lead-up to the introduction of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“In some ways, the discussion about a strategic US bitcoin reserve mirrors the ETF debate we saw earlier,” MacroScope <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/MacroScope17/status/1882035285501923730″ rel=”nofollow”>shared on x. He emphasized that just as ETFs expanded access and increased participation from institutional investors, a government-backed reserve could exponentially expand the pool of capital coming into the market.
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MacroScope's analysis is based on its observations before the advent of bitcoin ETFs. During that time, he claimed that ETFs would catalyze a new wave of investment by making bitcoin more accessible to a broader range of investors. “I posted the following at btc 44k, a few days before the ETFs started trading,” he recalled.
In fact, the introduction of ETFs facilitated easier access to bitcoin, attracting significant institutional and retail interest. MacroScope believes that a similar, although more impactful, scenario could play out with an SBR. Unlike ETFs, which primarily improve liquidity and accessibility, an SBR would indicate strong government support for bitcoin.
According to the analyst, a bitcoin reserve would expand the “pool of participants, certainly in terms of available capital.” This would have important global implications. (That) would be due to the arms race mentality that would develop. (…) ETFs impacted the price of bitcoin through easier access. “A US strategic stockpile will affect the price through global psychology and urgency,” he added.
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MacroScope referenced a post from the previous year to bolster its argument: “There's no way something can be 'valued' if a huge amount of capital literally doesn't have access yet. Yes, currently eligible speculators and their available capital can purchase in advance of an event. But that is all that can be done if the pool of participants is about to expand enormously.”
Nick Moran, founder and CEO of Space Race Energy, responded enthusiastically to MacroScope's claims. “Macroscope, you're right on this one,” Moran stated. He explained the likelihood of a “full-scale SBR” under a possible “Trump 2.0” administration, suggesting that such a move would set a precedent for other nations to follow.
Political support, although still in nascent stages, appears promising. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a prominent pro-bitcoin voice on Capitol Hill and author of the bitcoin Act, recently stated in a podcast: “Wouldn't it be fun if the United States bought bitcoin and that scared China and Russia into starting buying bitcoin? ? and we have an arms race over bitcoin instead of guns.”
Adding to the optimism, David Bailey, CEO of btc Inc. and key advisor to the Trump campaign on crypto assets, shared his expectations for x following President Trump's pardon of Ross Ulbricht. “I still expect EOs dedicated to bitcoin+crypto in the coming days,” Bailey said, hinting at upcoming executive orders that could formalize the establishment of an SBR. He further projected: “I also fully expect the president to comply with the SBR in his first 100 days.”
At the time of this publication, btc was trading at $102,295.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
