This article is also available in Spanish.
In a newly released inverter <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/matthew_sigel/status/1874903393938165865″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>noteOne of the oldest investment banks in the US, HC Wainwright & Co., founded in 1868, projects a substantial rise in the price of bitcoin. According to the note, the institution has revised its previous bitcoin price target for the end of 2025 from $145,000 to $225,000, supported by a confluence of historical trends, macroeconomic indicators, and emerging regulatory and institutional factors.
“We estimate that btc will reach a cycle high of $225,000 by the end of 2025,” the firm stated, referencing both market cycles and the potential for a more favorable digital asset regulatory landscape in the United States in 2025 under a new administration.
Why bitcoin could hit $225,000 by the end of the year
HC Wainwright's analysis highlights several fundamental forces driving bitcoin's growth trajectory. A major catalyst is the increased availability of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, a development that could unlock new waves of institutional capital. The firm also cites “accelerating corporate and institutional investor adoption” as a major contributor to its bullish outlook.
Related reading
On top of that, the investment bank's models assume an overall market environment that improves along with global liquidity and that any regulatory overhang will diminish. HC Wainwright is careful to note that the forecast is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, particularly as measured by the M2 money supply, which has trended downward since October.
Although he projects a lofty six-figure price by 2025, HC Wainwright acknowledged that bitcoin's path to $225,000 is unlikely to be a smooth road. In the report, the bank warned: “Drops of ~20-30% during bull markets are not uncommon (…) We estimate that btc could retreat to the mid-$70,000 range in early 1Q25 before resuming its trend bullish”.
They attribute these potential pullbacks to bitcoin's historical volatility and its correlation with global liquidity trends.
Related reading
If bitcoin reaches $225,000 per coin, HC Wainwright projects a total bitcoin market cap of approximately $4.5 trillion, about 25% of gold's current $18 trillion market cap. This scenario translates into an increase of 113% over current levels. However, the note adds a surprising scenario that is not yet taken into account in its main forecast:
“Our new 2025 price target does not take into account the possibility of the US government officially adopting btc as a treasury reserve asset at the federal level next year. If implemented, we believe it is plausible that btc could significantly exceed our base case target price.”
The institution's analysis also extends to the broader crypto market. Historically, bitcoin's dominance (its share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization) tends to fall during market peaks, and fell to the low 40% range near the last peak of the bull cycle in November 2021.
Looking ahead, HC Wainwright expects bitcoin dominance to decline to 45% by the end of 2025, down from 56% today. Under that assumption, the company predicts that the total crypto market will increase from $3.6 trillion today to approximately $10 trillion by the end of 2025.
HC Wainwright's coverage universe of publicly traded bitcoin mining companies will benefit from the expected price increase. “If our predictions are correct, there is potential for significant upward revisions to our coverage universe estimates over the next year.”
At the time of publication, btc was trading at $96,221.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
