As we head into 2025, it's time to take a measured and analytical approach to what the year holds for bitcoin. Taking into account the chain, the market cycle, macroeconomic data and more for the confluence, we can go beyond pure speculation to paint a data-driven picture for the coming months.
MVRV Z-Score: a lot of potential for improvement
He MVRV Z-score It measures the relationship between bitcoin's realized price (the average acquisition price of all btc on the network) and its market capitalization. Standardizing this volatility index gives us the Z-Score, which historically provides a clear picture of market cycles.
<img src="https://bitcoinmagazine.com/.image/c_fit%2Ch_800%2Cw_1200/MjExODQ1OTIwNjU5MDg5Mzg0/bitcoin-mvrv-z-score.jpg”>
Currently, the MVRV Z-Score suggests that we still have significant upside potential. While in previous cycles the Z-Score reached values above 7, I believe that anything above 6 indicates an overextension, leading to a closer look at other metrics to identify a market peak. Currently, we are at levels comparable to May 2017, when bitcoin was valued at just a few thousand dollars. Given the historical context, there is room for multiple hundred percent potential gains from current levels.
Pi Cycle Oscillator: Bullish Momentum Resumes
Another essential metric is the Pi Cycle Upper and Lower Indicatorr, which tracks the 111-day and 350-day moving averages (the latter multiplied by 2). Historically, when these averages intersect, it often indicates a spike in the price of bitcoin within days.
<img src="https://bitcoinmagazine.com/.image/c_fit%2Ch_800%2Cw_1200/MjExODQ1OTI4MTc1NDEyNzcx/bitcoin-pi-cycle-top–bottom-indicator.jpg”>
The distance between these two moving averages has started trending upward again, suggesting renewed bullish momentum. While periods of sideways consolidation occurred in 2024, the breakout we are seeing now indicates that bitcoin is entering a stronger growth phase, which could last several months.
The exponential phase of the cycle
When looking at historical bitcoin price action, cycles often feature a “post-halving cooldown” that lasts 6-12 months before entering an exponential growth phase. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-portfolio/btc-growth-since-cycle-lows/”>Based on previous cyclesWe are approaching this breaking point. While diminishing returns are expected compared to previous cycles, we could still see substantial gains.
<img src="https://bitcoinmagazine.com/.image/c_fit%2Ch_800%2Cw_1200/MjExODQ1OTM3MzAyMDg3MjAz/bitcoin-growth-since-cycle-lows.jpg”>
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-portfolio/btc-growth-since-cycle-lows/”>View live chart
For context, surpassing the previous all-time high of $20,000 in the 2020 cycle led to a peak near $70,000, a 3.5x increase. If we see even a conservative 2x or 3x from the last peak of $70,000, bitcoin could realistically reach between $140,000 and $210,000 in this cycle.
Macro factors that will support btc in 2025
Despite Headwinds in 2024, bitcoin Performed Strongly, Even in the Face of Strengthening <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-portfolio/btc-vs-dxy/”>US Dollar Index (DXY). Historically, bitcoin and the DXY move inversely, so any reversal in the DXY's strength could push bitcoin higher even further.
<img src="https://bitcoinmagazine.com/.image/c_fit%2Ch_800%2Cw_1200/MjExODQ1OTQ0MDEyOTc0MDU2/btc-vs-dxy.jpg”>
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-portfolio/btc-vs-dxy/”>View live chart
Other macroeconomic indicators, such as high-yield credit cycles and global M2 money supply, suggest improving conditions for bitcoin. The money supply contraction observed in 2024 is expected to reverse in 2025, setting the stage for an even more favorable environment.
Master Cycle Chart: A Long Way To Go
He <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/bitcoin-cycle-master/”>bitcoin Cycle Master The chart, which aggregates multiple on-chain valuation metrics, shows that bitcoin still has considerable room to grow before reaching overvaluation. The upper limit, currently around $190,000, continues to rise, reinforcing prospects for sustained bullish momentum.
<img src="https://bitcoinmagazine.com/.image/c_fit%2Ch_800%2Cw_1200/MjExODQ1OTQ5MzgxNjgzMTc2/bitcoin-cycle-master.jpg”>
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/bitcoin-cycle-master/”>View live chart
Conclusion
Currently, almost all data points are aligned for a bullish 2025. As always, past performance does not guarantee future results, however, the data strongly suggests that bitcoin's best days may still be ahead, even after an incredibly positive 2024.
For a more in-depth look at this topic, watch a recent YouTube video here: bitcoin 2025: a data-driven perspective
For more detailed bitcoin analysis and access to advanced features such as live charts, custom indicator alerts, and detailed industry reports, see bitcoin Pro Magazine.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
