ethereum price has pulled back sharply in recent days after encountering substantial resistance at $4,000.
ethereum (eth) was trading at $3,340 on Monday as cryptocurrencies stabilized. This was slightly above last week's low of $3,100.
Seasonality data suggests that ethereum price may recover sharply in the first quarter of 2025. According to glass coineth had positive returns in all but two first quarters since 2017. Its best performance was in 2017, when it jumped 518%, followed by 202.1 when it rose 160%.
Its average performance in the first quarter since 2017 was 92%, making it the best period of the year. The second quarter is its best quarter, followed by the fourth quarter. The third quarter is usually the worst period for cryptocurrencies, probably due to the summer season.
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More data shows ethereum rising in the first four months after the US election. Its average performance in the first four months of Donald Trump's administration was around 90%. Similarly, in 2021, its four-month return after Biden became president was $41.
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To be clear, seasonal data is not always a good predictor of what to expect. In your case, ethereum fell in January 2024, 2022 and 2019, and this may be one of them.
On the positive side, ethereum price has some solid fundamentals. eth spot ETFs are seeing strong accumulations by investors, with their cumulative inflows rising to over $2.33 billion.
The ethereum network has been renewed $2.44 billion in fees this year, making it the second most profitable network after Tether. The network remains dominant in the decentralized finance industry, with a total value of $66 billion, more than most of the ten chains combined.
The other potential catalyst for ethereum price is that its futures open interest has fallen to $23 billion from the year-to-date high of $28 billion. The last time its open interest was this low was in November, and the coin recovered to $4,000.
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ethereum Price Technical Analysis
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The weekly chart shows that Ether has strong technicals as it has remained above the ascending trend line connecting the lowest swings since May 2022. It has also moved slightly above the 50-week moving average and the Andrew's first fork tool holder.
Therefore, the price of ethereum is likely to recover in the coming months. A complete bullish breakout will be confirmed if the coin rises above the triple top chart pattern at $4,027. A move above that level will signal further gains to the all-time high of $4,860, its all-time high.
