bitcoin's price performance in 2024 is one for the history books, with the leading cryptocurrency crossing the $100,000 mark for the first time in history. However, reaching this milestone opened the door to another conversation: when will the market peak?
As a result, several predictions regarding bitcoin's peak price have emerged among the crypto public in recent weeks. The latest on-chain observation suggests that the market may not have reached its peak or may not be close to it yet.
Relatively low realized profit ratio compared to previous cycles
In a recent Quicktake post about the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym CryptoOnChain explained how the behavior and movements of whales could help identify the top of the bitcoin market. The relevant metric here is the realized profit rate, which measures the rate at which a cohort of investors exits the market.
The “realized profit ratio” metric calculates the proportion of coins sold at a profit relative to the total transaction volume. A high value for this metric indicates that the market is approaching its peak, and participants are beginning to dump their assets to make profits.
On the other hand, a low realized profit ratio shows that fewer market participants are selling their bags to make a profit. This often indicates sustained investor confidence and faith in further price growth of a cryptocurrency.
According to CryptoOnChain, the profit rate realized for various cohorts of bitcoin whales (holding 10-100, 100-1000, and 1000-10,000 btc) is noticeably lower compared to the past few cycles. As seen in the chart below, it appears that the whales have not yet started making profits.
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Source: CryptoQuant
This suggests that bitcoin whales, who are influential entities in the market, believe that the leading cryptocurrency has not yet peaked in the cycle. At the time of writing, the price of bitcoin sits just below $102,000, reflecting no significant change in the last 24 hours.
40,000 btc withdrawn from centralized exchanges: CryptoQuant
Another piece of data seems to support the idea that market participants are currently expecting higher profits. Noted crypto expert Ali Martinez turned to platform <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/ali_charts/status/1868045853950095870″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>share that significant amounts of bitcoin have left centralized exchanges in recent days.
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Source: Ali_charts/x
More than 40,000 btc (worth around $3.92 billion) were sent off exchanges over the past week. This move of assets to non-custodial portfolios indicates growing confidence among investors, with a focus on long-term promise rather than quick short-term gains.
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The price of btc on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on x/L6zmkAms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
