On December 9, Google CEO Sundar Pichai unveiled “Willow,” a quantum computing chip that he says represents a critical milestone in the search for scalable quantum systems, raising immediate questions about its implications for the long-term cryptographic security of bitcoin. While quantum computing has long promised breakthroughs, Willow's reported ability to dramatically reduce error rates and handle previously unmanageable computational tasks has reignited debate over its implications for cryptography, particularly the fundamental security layers of bitcoin.
in a statement <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/sundarpichai/status/1866167429367468422″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>aware In x, Pichai described Willow as a 105-qubit chip that can “reduce errors exponentially” at scale, something researchers have struggled to achieve for decades. He suggested that early benchmarks indicate that Willow tackled a standard quantum problem in less than five minutes, a task that he said “would take a leading supercomputer more than 10^25 years.”
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet”>
Introducing Willow, our new next-generation quantum computing chip with a breakthrough that can reduce errors exponentially as we expand the use of more qubits, overcoming a 30-year challenge in the field. In benchmark testing, Willow solved a standard calculation in <5 minutes that…
-Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/sundarpichai/status/1866167429367468422?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” rel=”nofollow noopener” target=”_blank”>December 9, 2024
The potential of quantum computing to solve problems at unprecedented speed has long been discussed in the context of cryptography, both classical and elliptic curve-based systems. bitcoin is based on two cryptographic pillars: ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) to protect private keys and SHA-256 for hashing. Both are considered robust compared to current classic computers. However, the arrival of powerful error-correcting quantum machines could change that assumption by making classical cryptographic puzzles trivial to solve.
Is Google's Willow a Threat to bitcoin?
Shortly after Willow's presentation, bitcoin Libre CEO Ben Sigman <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/bensig/status/1866235429982523705″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>offered a measured response on x. While acknowledging Willow's progress, he maintains that bitcoin encryption is still beyond the immediate reach of current quantum capabilities. He noted that exploiting bitcoin's elliptic curve signatures using Shor's algorithm would require “over 1,000,000 qubits,” orders of magnitude higher than Willow's 105.
Returning to bitcoin's second security layer, SHA-256, Sigman notes that breaking it would require “millions of physical qubits,” a much higher threshold than Willow or any current quantum system can reach. He concluded: “bitcoin crypto is still SAFU… for now.”
Charles Edwards, founder and CEO of Capriole Investments, <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1866355221670302170″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>warns
“The current level of skepticism about Quantum Computing reminds me of the average person who spends 10 minutes researching bitcoin and then dismisses it as worthless. Quantum Computing is real. It will change the world. MASSIVELY. Quality control will ruin bitcoin if we don't update it. The threat is real,” warns Edwards.
He points to research suggesting that as few as 2,500 logical qubits (well short of the oft-cited “millions of qubits”) could be enough to challenge SHA-256. The difference between physical and logical qubits is crucial. While physical qubits are the building blocks, logical qubits emerge only after substantial error correction and resource overhead. Currently, building a system with thousands of logical qubits requires a much larger number of physical qubits: potentially millions.
Additionally, Edwards references several forward-looking studies and timelines, suggesting that many quantum computing companies, some of which are publicly traded and provide future guidance, believe they can reach around 3,000 logical qubits in as little as five years.
He describes the current skepticism about the pace of quantum technology as similar to the early dismissals of bitcoin's value. Edwards emphasized that while the exact timeline remains uncertain (whether 3, 5, 10 or 15 years from now), delaying action is not advisable.
“At best, once we have agreed on a QA-proof crypto upgrade for bitcoin, it will probably take 1 year for everyone (most) to adopt it. Further reducing the time we have to act,” Edwards writes.
Adding to the debate, Matteo Pellegrini, CEO and founder of The New Orange Pill app, highlighted that while the number of 2,500 logical qubits may seem small, achieving it is not a trivial feat.
He commented: “The study referenced analyzes the number of logical qubits potentially required to break SHA-256. While it is true that only ~2500 logical qubits could be enough to break bitcoin encryption (e.g. private key derivation), achieving this in practice involves a huge leap in error correction, coherence time, and door fidelity. “The physical qubits needed could run into the millions due to current inefficiencies.”
This discrepancy between physical and logical qubit counts underscores why some experts remain calm: Going from a few hundred physical qubits (like Willow's 105) to millions is a colossal engineering task. However, Edwards warns: “Most companies are on track to achieve this in less than five years.”
At the time of this publication, btc was trading at $97,492.
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