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Renowned macroanalyst Alex Krüger posits that bitcoin is “very likely” in a supercycle. Krüger articulated his <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/krugermacro/status/1865812756823171446″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>perspective through x, emphasizing the different trajectory bitcoin is currently taking compared to previous market cycles.
A bitcoin supercycle is a theoretical phase in which the price of bitcoin is expected to rise extraordinarily, surpassing its traditional boom and bust cycles. This concept implies an extended period of growth fueled by increased mainstream adoption, leading to a significantly stronger and longer-lasting upward trajectory than the typical four-year halving cycle that bitcoin historically follows.
Is bitcoin in a supercycle?
Regarding President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-bitcoin U-turn and his plan to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve, Krüger commented: “Do yourself a favor and stop comparing this cycle to previous cycles. bitcoin is most likely in a supercycle. “The crypto industry has just experienced the most dramatic change in its history, a fundamentally driven 180 degree turn,” the analyst stated.
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Krüger also addressed the rapid evolution of the bitcoin and cryptocurrency sector, noting that it went “from a barely legal, state-loathed pariah, to a major state-embraced industry” in a matter of weeks, a shift which he describes as “so extreme, it is difficult to find comparables in modern times.”
Drawing parallels to historical financial changes, Krüger highlighted the transformative impact of the 1970s on gold. “Maybe gold in the 1970s is one of them. The 1970s were a transformative decade for gold. The end of the gold standard by Nixon in 1971, dismantling Bretton Woods, caused gold to rise from $35 an ounce to $850 in 1981,” he explained.
Krüger also addressed the timing of bitcoin's potential peak, suggesting that expecting a major local peak around March is reasonable based on his previous analyses. “This would largely depend on the steepness of the climb, funding rates and the broader economy. But a major local high should not be equated with the beginning of a bear market,” he said.
Although he recognized the possibility of a bear market, he emphasized that “the conditions for it are not yet in place. It's also too early to expect a cap. bitcoin bull runs always last many months. It has only been 33 days since Trump unleashed the Kraken.”
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Highlighting the precarious nature of market sentiment, Krüger added a note of caution: “The moment you all finally believe what I just wrote, then it will be for the best.” With this statement, Krüger underlines the psychological factors that often influence market dynamics, in particular the collective belief in market peaks.
x user Paradox Parrot (@Paradoxparrot) commented on Krüger's statement, stating: “Okay. But 'this time it's different' is a good way to go back.” In response, Krüger acknowledged the cyclical skepticism surrounding altcoins and stated: “Sure. The Alts will cover most of it. It is the nature of the beast. Note that this time has already been shown to be different multiple times on many levels. I have anticipated and covered it here in detail since mid-2023. By the way, the round trip is alternative for two reasons. A) lack of fundamentally driven demand. And more importantly, B) illiquidity (that's why they also rise so vertically).”
Despite Krüger's optimistic outlook, not all experts agree with the supercycle hypothesis. Chris Burnsike, partner at Placeholder VC, <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/cburniske/status/1865460080440721876″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>offered a contrasting view on x on December 7: “Bookmark it for later: a supercycle is never real; everything is cyclical, although the cycles may vary. (…) Believing in the idea of a supercycle is the way to never sell and make a round trip. Ask anyone who has never sold in 2021.”
At the time of publication, btc was trading at $98,287.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
