The forecast for bitcoin's price to hit $100,000 cooled off last week, especially after the leading cryptocurrency fell below $93,000 over the past seven days. Fortunately, btc has recovered somewhat from the drop, rising as high as $98,500 on Friday, November 29.
Following the recent drop in bitcoin price, investors are wondering if the top of the market cycle is near or if there is still more room for growth. A prominent on-chain analysis company has revealed that the cryptocurrency market is still in a bullish phase.
bitcoin is still in a bull market, but the blockchain company sounds a warning
In its latest report, the market analysis platform CryptoQuant has <a target="_blank" href="https://cryptoquant.com/community/dashboard/67486428f175a3437048713a?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=sns&utm_campaign=dashboard&utm_content=crypto-weekly-report” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>introduce a target for the maximum price of bitcoin in the current cycle. According to the blockchain company, the maximum price of the market leader is rather in the range of a six-figure valuation.
The main reason behind this projection is based on the realized price valuation metric, which measures the price at which the last transaction was made with each coin. From a historical perspective, this bitcoin price band has often acted as an indicator of the market top in past cycles.
According to CryptoQuant, the realized price metric currently points to $146,000 as the possible peak in this cycle. As shown in the chart below, the price band (the red line), currently around $147,000, acted as the market top around April and May 2021.
<img data-recalc-dims="1" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-346187 size-full" src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Bitcoin-Price-Hits-146000-High-Here39s-why-CryptoQuant-thinks-this.png" alt="bitcoin price” width=”2874″ height=”1798″ srcset=”https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Screen-Shot-2024-11-29-at-21.13.53.png?w=2874 2874w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Screen-Shot-2024-11-29-at-21.13.53.png?w=640 640w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Screen-Shot-2024-11-29-at-21.13.53.png?w=768 768w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Screen-Shot-2024-11-29-at-21.13.53.png?w=980 980w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Screen-Shot-2024-11-29-at-21.13.53.png?w=1536 1536w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Screen-Shot-2024-11-29-at-21.13.53.png?w=2048 2048w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Screen-Shot-2024-11-29-at-21.13.53.png?w=750 750w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Screen-Shot-2024-11-29-at-21.13.53.png?w=1140 1140w” sizes=”(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px”/>
Source: CryptoQuant
Furthermore, the holdings of new investors have not yet reached the extreme level, as was already a sign at the last two market highs. As of now, the value held by new bitcoin investors represents a little over 50% of the total money in btc; This figure pales significantly in comparison to the 90% and 80% seen in 2017 and 2021, respectively.
CryptoQuant warned:
bitcoin price peaks typically occur when new investors enter the market to buy at extremely high prices, causing them to retain a large proportion of the total value invested.
Additionally, retail trading activity has not yet reached the levels often associated with bitcoin price spikes. Bullish cycles have historically been seen to peak when retail btc investors aggressively accumulate coins. However, this phenomenon is still absent in current market conditions.
It is worth mentioning that CryptoQuant expects a decline in the price of bitcoin in the short term. According to the on-chain intelligence firm, MicroStrategy's stock price is overheating relative to the value of the company's bitcoin holdings.
bitcoin price at a glance
At the time of writing, the price of bitcoin is around $96,500, reflecting an increase of almost 3% in the last 24 hours. While this single-day rally has helped reduce some of btc's loss over the past week, the top cryptocurrency is still down more than 2% in the time period.
The price of btc on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on x/Id1sXVOp/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView
Featured image created by DALL-E, TradingView chart
