The price of bitcoin soared to a new all-time high of $89,940 on Binance on Tuesday, boosted by market enthusiasm over Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. The surge comes as Trump promised to establish a national bitcoin reserve and even considered using bitcoin to pay off the US national debt.
bitcoin Price Targets $102,000
Amid this bullish atmosphere, pioneering bitcoin on-chain analyst Willy Woo (@woonomic) <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/woonomic/status/1856400553577988393″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>provided information on bitcoin's potential next moves via
“When btc hits all-time highs, there is no prior history of resistance for the market to trade. This means that the price is discovered without restrictions, sharp changes are expected,” Woo explained via x.
He highlighted two methods for identifying new resistance levels in such scenarios: Fibonacci bands, which use natural mathematical sequences, and actual market position liquidation levels. He noted that the $88,000 to $91,000 range was the first target (already reached) and suggested that consolidation should occur there.
“The first target was between $88,000 and $91,000. We reached it. Consolidation should happen here. This is due to both the local fib levels and the liquidation levels where most of the shorts have been eliminated, it is the end of the elimination of mandatory purchases by short sellers,” commented Woo.
He added that “$102,000 is the next macro lie, using the last cycle's high and this cycle's low,” referring to the next significant Fibonacci retracement level. “Let's see where the new settlements cluster, but for now, that's our next target based on lies.”
Woo also addressed the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap, a price gap in bitcoin futures that often appears during weekends or during trading halts. A user named Bill O'Rights (@ajdavault) asked about its potential impact: “What's up with the CME gap?”
Woo responded that if the CME gap develops, it would be part of the consolidation phase. “88,000-91,000 was the target price to reach before starting a cooling phase,” he said. Notably, a new CME gap formed over the past weekend, located between $78,000 and approximately $80,700. Since mid-March 2024, bitcoin has filled every CME gap that has formed, although historically not all gaps are filled.
Another user pointed out possible resistance based on technical analysis, referencing an assessment by Sven Henrich, founder and chief market strategist at NorthmanTrader. Henrich noted that bitcoin is “approaching key trendline resistance on a steep negative weekly RSI divergence,” noting that a similar divergence occurred when bitcoin peaked in November 2021.
Woo acknowledged Henrich's expertise but emphasized the importance of fundamental factors over traditional technical analysis. “One really important thing to note is that the fundamental structure of supply and demand, from actual investor activity, global liquidity expansion and market positioning, is 100% different, almost completely opposite” , he stated.
When asked about the use of Fibonacci levels, which are a form of technical analysis, Woo agreed, but noted that their effectiveness increases when combined with fundamental market conditions. “Not to belittle it,” he said of technical analysis. “It just gets better considering the fundamental environment.”
At the time of this publication, bitcoin was trading at $87,492.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
