The election is over and Trump will be president again. He accomplished something that had not been done since Grover Cleveland in the 19th century: a successful re-election following a defeat after his first term. People all over this space are celebrating this as some sort of victory for bitcoin, but nothing could be further from the truth.
Ross will likely be released, Trump is too proud of himself to back down on something so trivial as to fulfill his campaign promise, so he probably will. It's too easy, and something he can brag about and take credit for, so it will happen.
That's where everything substantial will end. A strategic reserve cannot be created without congressional approval; Even seized assets must by law be sold on the open market. Trump cannot, by any reading of his authority that I know of, unilaterally pressure the federal government to start accumulating bitcoins. Even if by some miracle Congress were to act to pass such legislation, what good is it to bitcoin? A government hoarding bitcoin won't help make it more scalable, won't make it more private, won't protect it from government overreach and interference. It won't even help us pay our debt; the price appreciation necessary for such a result is downright delusional.
Instead, the most likely outcome is more of the same. More attacks on bitcoin privacy. More invasive regulations in the form of KYC and AML. Miners will likely come under scrutiny as bitcoin's rise on the global political stage continues. The question of their responsibility and involvement in confirming sanctioned or undesirable transactions has already been floating around Washington DC for a few years, the tone of those questions will likely become more serious.
Exchanges and other on- and off-ramps are likely to be pressured to engage in increasingly invasive surveillance of their users in pursuit of rooting out terrorism, criminal use, child trafficking, etc. All the traditional boogeymen of the digital world will come to the fore, and the regulatory noose will tighten. Sure, Trump could push to enshrine self-custody as a right, but does that alone really provide any serious degree of freedom without privacy? No resistance to censorship?
Trump even spoke in Nashville about regulations and the expansion and support of stablecoins. “People who see bitcoin as a threat to the dollar see it exactly the other way around.” He wants to push dollar-backed stablecoins around the world, taking advantage of a new route for us to export our inflation without the need for diplomacy. People in other countries can simply use them, they don't need their government to choose to dollarize or hold dollar reserves. Just download an app and start using it. The approach he wants to take towards bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will breathe new life into the dollar and push bitcoin down the path of stagnation and capture.
People applaud this as a victory for bitcoin, the reality is that we are the ones who entered the challenge. It is still an open question whether we can execute it successfully and come out on top without having to make serious and potentially fatal concessions.
