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One of Polymarket's biggest spenders nearly doubled his pot with Donald Trump's election victory this week.
Polymarket whale “Theo4” won $21.9 million betting on four Trump-centric markets on the Polygon-based prediction platform, including Trump's victory over Kamala Harris.
The user rightly provided that Trump would also win the popular vote, a result that contradicted previous results. While Trump won the electoral college in 2016, he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton and also lost the popular vote to Joe Biden in 2020.
Theo4 first made headlines after a New York Times report suggested that a Polymarket whale could be manipulating public perception and inflating Trump's odds. The user, a professional French investor and trader, refuted the claim and attributed his strategy to personal bias and a data-driven approach.
Theo4 argued that national polls were skewed in favor of Harris and believed that many underestimated Trump's vote.
Polymarket's largest electoral contract was also Theo4's largest investment. The market titled “Will Donald Trump Win the 2024 US Presidential Election?” accumulated over $3 billion in volume, with the French user spending around $9 million on shares, which was settled on November 6.
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Prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi were seemingly vindicated when Trump was announced as the president-elect of the United States.
These platforms, which allow users to bet on the outcomes of events, gained popularity as elections approached earlier this year. However, they faced criticism from skeptics and regulators for allegedly promoting electoral gambling.
Rumors of political bias also circulated, with traditional media channels claiming that prediction platforms were highly partisan. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan dismissed the claims as unfounded and defended his company as nothing more than a data source.
Make no mistake: Polymarket called the elections on its own in the first place. The global truth machine is here, powered by the people.
Shayne Coplan on x
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