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bitcoin price has recorded five consecutive daily red candles since stopping just short of its all-time high of $73,620 last Tuesday. As a result, the price of btc has fallen by around 7%. This drop is evident on the weekly chart, which shows a major bearish weekly candle: a tombstone doji.
Aksel Kibar, Chartered Market Technician (CMT) x.com/TechCharts/status/1853063706134855689″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>noted via However, he added: “It is not reliable as a single sail. It is best to combine it with a next weak candle as confirmation of the trend change. (…) The market narrative is that the bulls try to reach new highs during the session, but the bears push the price action near the open to the close of the session.
Will bitcoin reach $75,000 by the end of November?
Despite this, Singapore-based cryptocurrency trading firm QCP Capital remains bullish on its latest investor. notehighlighting significant changes in both the political prediction markets and the btc derivatives market.
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According to QCP Capital, the odds on decentralized prediction market Polymarket have been “closer to actual polling estimates,” with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump “locked in a tight race.” While Polymarket still favors Trump at 55%, this marks a decline from 66% a week ago, indicating a narrowing margin that aligns more closely with mainstream polling data.
The firm also noted a sentiment of caution prevailing in the cryptocurrency market. “Sideways price action over the weekend” and a decline in leveraged perpetual futures positioning (from $30 billion to $26 billion across all exchanges) suggest traders are taking a wait-and-see approach and see what happens. This decline may be due to uncertainties surrounding macroeconomic factors or upcoming elections.
Despite the current market hesitation, QCP Capital sees potential for a significant upward move in the price of bitcoin. The firm questioned whether this is “the calm before a breakout of the multi-month range and a push towards all-time highs.” In support of this outlook, QCP noted an increase in top positioning with substantial buying of $75,000 late November call options since last Friday. This increase in call options at that strike price suggests that traders are positioning themselves for a substantial rally by the end of November.
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In addition, the firm highlighted greater activity in options linked to the electoral date. “Election date options positions are also increasing,” QCP noted, with implied volatility on Friday exceeding 87% even as realized volatility remains at 40%. The high implied volatility indicates that options traders anticipate significant price swings during the election period.
Looking ahead, QCP Capital expects bitcoin spot price to remain range-bound until the US election results provide more clarity. The firm stated that they “expect the point to move around this range until we have more clarity on the election results this week,” adding that “a Trump victory will likely trigger a higher knee-jerk reaction, and vice versa if he wins.” “Kamala.” “
At the time of publication, btc was trading at $68,852.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
