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x.com/doctor_magic_/status/1853085826265018812?s=46″ rel=”nofollow”>Speculations about him bitcoin-transitioning-to-a-bear-market-metric/amp/” rel=”nofollow”>The bitcoin bull market is over have been abundant in the cryptocurrency market, especially since the price has failed to reach its March all-time high above $73,000. Providing a more compelling case to this narrative, a crypto analyst has published a bitcoin Bear Case scenario that could see the pioneering cryptocurrency fall to $28,000.
bitcoin Bear Case Revealed
In an x (formerly twitter)x.com/bobloukas/status/1853104316950733238?s=46″ rel=”nofollow”> mailcrypto analyst and position trader Bob Loukas revealed a “bitcoin bearish case,” revealing a more unorthodox situation and bearish scenario for bitcoin than most analysts have suggested. Basing his bearish scenarios on cycle theory, Loukas proposes that bitcoin could be part of the broader 16-year cycle, and that the current market marks the final four-year phase of this cycle.
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The analyst suggested that this four-year phase could end in two ways: a distribution phase, in which price peak and then decline, or an ascending phase, where bitcoin experiences one last rise before a recession begins. Loukas has revealed that while cycle trends can help predict or provide information about the future price movements of a cryptocurrency, it emphasizes that the “non-power law” guarantees that the price of an asset will continually increase.
The analyst aims to desensitize investors by making them believe that bitcoin will always be bullish without declines. He states that a bear cycle It is inevitable at some point, although the timing remains uncertain.
Loukas identified specific price movements on his bitcoin chart that could serve as bearish signalsuggesting a possible slowdown. The analyst predicts that bitcoin could fall to new lows around $28,500 by 2026. He also predicted that after a period of volatility that consisted of price drops and increases, the cryptocurrency could rise back to $59,500 by 2027.
For clarity, Loukas has proposed a narrative, suggesting that if bitcoin were to close below the 10-month moving average (MA) for a “bull market”, would be a cause for concern. Similarly, a monthly close below the $58,800 mark could signal the beginning of a possible downward spiral.
The cryptanalyst estimated a 10% to 15% chance of this bearish scenario occurring, emphasizing that it was a possibility and not a certainty. He clarified that although he believes that current market cycle Leans towards a more bullish scenario based on historical evidence, always considers alternative scenarios. This approach is likely due to the inherent unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market and notorious volatility.
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Analyst Sees Retail Activity Driving btc Downtrend
Revealing his bearish bitcoin scenario, Loukas revealed that broader interest in cryptocurrencies outside of bitcoin has faded significantly. He revealed that there is a lack of new retail investors, and this weakening enthusiasm could pose a serious challenge for bitcoin to generate new capital for growth.
According to Loukas, bitcoin-whales-are-growing-as-retail-shrinks-a-sign-of-strength/amp/” rel=”nofollow”>The disinterest of retail investors It may be due to a change of feeling. The adoption of cryptocurrencies has been reduced to mere speculation and fewer people believe in their transformative potential.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
