This article is also available in Spanish.
As the United States approaches the presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, the bitcoin market is bracing for significant volatility. In the run-up to the election, bitcoin rose to a high of $73,620 on Tuesday, likely reflecting investor optimism about a possible victory for former President Donald Trump. However, on Friday, btc price saw a correction, falling to $68,830 amid more cautious and risk-averse sentiment as the election looms.
How to Trade bitcoin During the US Elections
Alex Krüger, Argentine economist and renowned cryptanalyst, x.com/krugermacro/status/1852102110554284516″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>shared his strategic framework on how to trade bitcoin during the US election period through his year with a 55% probability, while a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris could see bitcoin settle around $65,000 with a 45% probability. He emphasized that the timing will be important: “Expect the measure to be quick if Trump wins. “Markets rarely wait for laggards in binary events that are not largely ahead.”
Krüger also noted that the current price of bitcoin, which he anticipated to be in the $65,000 to $68,000 range before election night, had “overshot” in line with the odds favoring a Trump victory. He noted the uncertainty surrounding the election results, which depends primarily on Pennsylvania's vote count, which could delay the announcement of a clear winner.
Related reading
“It largely depends on the Pennsylvania count whether it is lopsided or not. It could be as soon as Tuesday night EST, or days later if the count is very close. The sooner we have clarity, the easier it will be,” Krüger said.
As for market sentiment, Krüger expressed a bullish outlook on stocks regardless of the election outcome, barring an unexpected “blue sweep” in which Democrats secure both the presidency and the majority in Congress. He explained that “stocks drag bitcoin down.”
In his personal investment strategy, Krüger revealed that he is long bitcoin and Nvidia, and plans to go long Solana (SOL) if Trump wins. With this, Krüger is probably betting on the spot approval of the Solana Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States.
Krüger's analysis suggests that the market has partially priced in a Trump victory, anticipating that a Trump administration could boost the price of bitcoin. “Markets have partially priced in Trump's victory. We (the market, as a whole) expect Trump to drive cryptocurrency prices higher due to greater regulatory clarity and the implementation of pro-crypto policies,” the analyst wrote.
Related reading
Additionally, he expects Trump's focus on increasing government spending to spur near-term economic growth, positively impacting stocks, a sector closely linked to bitcoin's performance.
By contrast, a Harris victory would likely represent a continuation of existing policies, barring a significant Democratic sweep. Krüger concluded: “According to betting markets and various election forecasting models, Trump's odds are in the range of 50% to 63%. Therefore, it is “safe” to assume that a GOP victory is far from fully in the cards. Such a controversial setup is common in elections. That's why I don't expect to 'sell the news.'”
At the time of publication, btc was trading at $70,402.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
