Today, bitcoin (btc) briefly traded above $69,000, approaching its all-time high (ATH) of $73,737 recorded earlier this year in March.
bitcoin's 'bullish setup' is reminiscent of 2020 rally
After months of sideways price movements since March, btc is continually trying to reach a new ATH as the US presidential election approaches. The digital asset briefly touched $69,000 before falling to $68,674 at the time of writing.
During an interview with CNBC, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1850900946206745029″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>saying:
Our bet is that this is a very bullish setup for bitcoin in the elections. We saw the exact same pattern in 2020 where bitcoin lagged behind with low volatility and then once the winner was announced we had a high volume rally as new buyers entered this market.
Sigel added that once the election results are confirmed, Moody's is expected to downgrade US sovereign debt, which could catalyze a btc rally in the fourth quarter of 2024.
crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe also noted that despite bitcoin's relatively subdued performance in October (a traditionally strong month for the asset), btc is well positioned to hit a new ATH soon.
He pointed point out that, despite the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, rates remain high enough to favor risk-free assets such as US Treasury bills (T-bills), removing liquidity of the riskiest assets.
The Dutch crypto analyst drew attention to the rising M2 money supply and said the metric's strong positive correlation with btc could suggest the digital asset could be on the cusp of a major rally. He said:
As long as the supply of M2 increases, the price of bitcoin will follow suit… so it's only a matter of time until the price of bitcoin gains momentum.
Notably, van de Poppe also mentioned that a possible Donald Trump presidency could spark optimism in the crypto sector, possibly sparking a bull run for digital assets in the coming months.
Trump continues to lead prediction markets
Data from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, indicates that Trump is the favorite to win against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
At press time, the probability of Trump winning the election has exceeded 66%. By comparison, Harris's odds are around 34%.
A recent survey found that the influence of the crypto voting block on election results is likely to be underestimated. The survey found that about 16% of voters believe the candidate's stance on cryptocurrencies will influence their vote choice.
While the majority in the crypto industry lean towards Trump due to his pro-cryptocurrency stance, Harris has been actively courting part of its cryptocurrency support base.
An analyst recently opined that a Harris-led administration could arguably be better than Joe Biden's for the digital asset industry. btc is trading at $68,674 at press time, up 1.2% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com
