El Salvador's misguided critics got new ammunition this week.
A recent survey revealed that only 7.5% of Salvadorans use bitcoin for transactions, and that 92% of Salvadorans do not. But while some (hint: Steve Hanke) may look at these numbers and think, “Oh, well, that experiment failed,” I disagree.
Even setting aside the rise in tourism, business activity, and international notoriety, El Salvador's bitcoin legal tender law has been a success.
El Salvador currently has a population of around 6.3 million, which means that 475,000 (7.5%) people use bitcoin for transactions. The fact that almost half a million citizens use btc in their daily lives to make transactions is quite impressive, but the Lindy effect means that we can expect this figure to increase over time.
Considering the history of El Salvador, it was obvious from the beginning that the entire country was not going to start using this new payment technology from day one. El Salvador has a history of failed monetary regimes. It takes time for any new system to build trust.
As I noted three years ago, I believe bitcoin must first become a store of value before becoming a medium of exchange. Today, bitcoin, even as a $1.4 trillion asset, is still just a drop in the ocean compared to the vast global wealth.
There is still a common consensus in the general public that it is risky to get into bitcoin, and that will have to change before more people in more countries start using it daily.
bitcoin continues to be a new asset class that is growing. The more it grows, the more credibility it gains, the more prices increase, the more innovation occurs that generates new transactional and escrow solutions to satisfy non-technical people wherever they are.
This will take a long time, but it is a process that is underway.
I see many Bitcoiners online who are so optimistic that they believe adoption as an everyday transaction method will suddenly happen in the next few years, but this discounts real-world data, like this survey, which shows the process is much slower.
All of this is to say that if bitcoin is going to be adopted and used by traders around the world by ordinary people, we will need to see a much higher price, bitcoin will have to be easier to use and more reliable than we think. It's today. .
How long will it take exactly? I don't know for sure. But if you think of it as a loading bar, we are already 7.5% along our path to 100% of Salvadorans transacting in bitcoin.
Remember, this is progress. Nothing happens overnight.
This article is a Carry. The opinions expressed are entirely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of btc Inc or bitcoin Magazine.
