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in his last video In an analysis titled “The Only bitcoin Indicator Signaling the LAST Major Drop,” Dan Gambardello, a prominent crypto analyst with 370,000 subscribers on YouTube, delves into the latest bitcoin price action to forecast what could potentially be the major drop. end. After falling as low as $60,000 on Wednesday, fear of another deeper price drop has gripped the bitcoin market.
Why this could be the last step down for bitcoin
Gambardello highlights the importance of daily and six-hour charts. On the daily chart, bitcoin is currently testing the 50-day moving average, a level that often serves as a litmus test for short-term market sentiment.
However, the analyst's main focus is on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the six-hour chart, a momentum oscillator used to measure the speed and change of price movements, which has reached oversold levels. According to Gambardello, the RSI reaching oversold territory is traditionally considered a bullish signal, which could signal a near end to the current price decline.
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“I think the bottom is really close. There could be some kind of capitulation in the very short term, but I think there could be a very strong rebound after that happens,” Gambardello noted, suggesting that despite the immediate market turmoil following news about the conflict between Israel and Iran, fundamentals point towards an eventual solid recovery.
Via x, Gambardello added: “Nothing like an oversold 6-hour RSI at the beginning of the bull season. “It’s also fantastic during bull season.”
This claim is based on their analysis of past market behaviors during similar conditions, reinforcing the cyclical nature of bitcoin market dynamics. Drawing parallels with historical data, Gambardello highlights bitcoin's behavioral trends in previous Octobers, noting a pattern of initial declines followed by strong recoveries at the end of the month.
“October will close in green. It's always (like that) with the dip. People are just crazy. I guess that's it, but this buys us a little time. “We are getting all these red candles heading into October, if they give us another week, maybe even two, we could get a boost, a breakout to the upside by the end of October,” says Gambardello.
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Going even deeper into the analysis, Gambardello discusses possible scenarios around bitcoin's lower trendline, a recurring support level over the past six months. He speculates that if bitcoin approaches this trend line again, it could effectively serve as a solid support level, potentially marking the last significant drop before a sustained uptrend.
In particular, a final touch of the trendline could bring the btc price down to $50,000. However, Gambardello believes this is a less likely scenario as the 6-hour RSI has already reached oversold territory, while btc is currently bouncing off the 50-day moving average.
Additionally, Gambardello refers to bitcoin's performance in recent halving years, which are typically followed by bull markets, as seen in 2016 and 2020. Gambardello suggests that the current year could follow a similar trajectory. “This is a halving year. We have seen what happened in the halving years in 2020 and 2016 in October. Is it going to be repeated?
At press time, bitcoin was trading at $60,899.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
