The bitcoin community has been eagerly awaiting the start of a new bull market, especially after the recent halving that occurred in April, however, according to a latest analysis According to a CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym Onchained, that time has not yet come, and there is a reason.
In the post uploaded to the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, Onchained’s analysis focused on the Mourad Long-Term Holders (LTH) Index, a proprietary indicator that tracks UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) held for more than six months.
This ratio basically helps gauge market sentiment and accumulation tendencies among long-term bitcoin holders, offering valuable insights into when btc may enter its next bullish phase.
Stability in the Mourad ratio of long-term holders
One of the key indicators that stands out in the analysis is the stability of the Mourad ratio of long-term holders. Historically, when this ratio remains stable, it suggests that the market is not yet ready for a significant bullish move.
Onchained explained that a bull market usually begins only when the ratio starts to deviate negatively from these stable levels. Currently, the data shows that the LTH Mourad ratio is stable, indicating that bitcoin's bullish trend has not yet begun.
<img src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/This-is-why-Bitcoin39s-bull-run-hasn39t-started-according-to.png" alt="Mourad ratio of long-term holders of bitcoin (LTH).” />
This stability in the relationship, according to the analyst, indicates that long-term holders are not yet driving a substantial price movement in the market, and investors may have to be patient until more favorable conditions emerge.
For further context, the Mourad ratio is calculated by dividing the long-term holder's current Mourad transaction value (LTH MCTV) by the current price of bitcoin.
This calculation provides insight into the average value of UTXOs older than six months, giving a clearer picture of recent accumulation trends among long-term btc holders.
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Technicals suggest that bitcoin bull rally is not that far away
While Onchained’s analysis has confirmed that bitcoin’s uptrend has not yet started, other analysts have turned to the historical price chart to assess when btc’s uptrend might begin from a technical perspective.
The popular bitcoin information platform known as bitcoin Archive on x has… twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1838939639119286312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” target=”_blank”>Outstanding that btc is on the verge of making a “bullish crossover on the 5-day chart for the first time in 230 days.”
According to bitcoin Archive, the last two times this happened, btc was up 79% and 74%, so if this happens again, bitcoin could surpass $100,000.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet”>
bitcoin's MACD is about to make a bullish crossover on the 5-day chart for the first time in 230 days.
The last 2x bitcoin is up 79% and 74%.
twitter.com/hashtag/bitcoin?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” target=”_blank”>#bitcoin It will increase MORE THAN $100,000 if this is repeated. image.twitter.com/USTaCzHD44
— bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1838939639119286312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” target=”_blank”>September 25, 2024
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