An analyst has explained that the worst may be over for bitcoin and that Q4 could bring back bullish momentum if history is anything to go by.
The third quarter has historically been the worst time for bitcoin investors
In a new x.com/caprioleio/status/1835972005595906070″ target=”_blank”>mail At x, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards spoke about how investors are going through the worst time for bitcoin. Below is the table cited by the analyst, which breaks down the quarterly returns the cryptocurrency has experienced throughout its history.
<img src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Bitcoin39s-toughest-moment-is-over-why-Q4-could-be-decisive.png" alt="bitcoin Quarterly Returns” />
As you can see, the third quarter of the year has generally been the worst time for bitcoin in history, with average returns for the month of +5% and medians of -4%.
To put this into perspective, the worst-performing second quarter tends to be the second, but its average and median returns of +27% and +7%, respectively, are still significantly better than those of the third quarter.
At the other end of the spectrum is Q4, the next quarter of the current year. bitcoin has had its best periods this quarter, with average and median returns of +89% and +57%, respectively.
“If you’re still here, congratulations. You’ve made it through the worst time to be in bitcoin,” Edwards says in the post about btc traders. “The best is yet to come.”
Last year, the cryptocurrency enjoyed a nearly 57% increase in this period. With the third quarter quickly approaching its end, it remains to be seen how the btc price will perform in the fourth quarter this time around.
Speaking of historical patterns, on-chain analyst Checkmate x.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1835804026526671290″>Discussed How the distribution of daily price performance has looked in bear and bull markets in a publication x.
Here is the chart shared by the analyst:
<img src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/1726668706_465_Bitcoin39s-toughest-moment-is-over-why-Q4-could-be-decisive.png" alt="bitcoin Bull & Bear Distribution” />
As shown in the chart above, around 28% of bear market days have seen the asset trend above +1%, while around 38% have seen it fall by more than -1%. The remaining 34% of days have seen the cryptocurrency remain between +1% and -1% of the previous day.
During bullish periods, bitcoin has spent 33% of days registering an increase of more than +1%, while 26% registered a decrease of more than -1%. The asset has consolidated for the remaining 41%.
The symmetry between the three types of days is interesting, but what stands out is how the distributions are almost the same between bear and bull markets.
“Day traders are trying to beat a three-sided coin, with one-third of all days up, one-third selling, and one-third doing nothing,” Checkmate notes.
btc Price
bitcoin has shown a sudden burst of bullish momentum over the past 24 hours as its price has surged by more than 5%, reaching the $60,900 level.
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