Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) shares, LLY sharesVal Brickates Kennedy,
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- As many as 16 new GLP-1 drugs could be launched by 2029, eventually occupying nearly a third of a potential $200 billion market by 2031 that is still expected to be dominated by frontrunners Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (New York Stock Exchange:LLY), according to a new report from Morningstar and Pitchbook.
- Morningstar said it estimates Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Lilly (LLY) will retain about two-thirds of the total GLP-1 market by 2031, with about 68% of sales for weight loss indications. Competing drugs could account for about $70 billion of the GLP-1 market by 2031.
- Potential near-term competitors include Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY), Amgen (AMGN), Pfizer (PFE), AstraZeneca (AZN), Boehringer, Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR), all of which could launch rival weight-loss drugs in the next three to four years. According to the report.
- The report names Viking (VKTX) and Structure (GPCR) as key acquisition targets. Companies considered most likely to acquire a GLP-1 developer include Novo Nordisk (NVO), Lilly (LLY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Merck (MRK), followed by AstraZeneca (AZN), Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY), and Boehringer.
- Morningstar said the new drugs will likely take market share away from Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Lilly (LLY). It added that while it thinks the two companies will retain nearly 70% of the market, it considers the stocks to be “overvalued.”
- Increased competition will also put additional pressure on prices. By 2027, Morningstar said it expects “new entrants to cause annual price declines to accelerate toward 10%-15% as competitors scramble to obtain insurance coverage.”
