Adam Back, the co-founder of Blockstream, believes that bitcoin (BTC) can go as high as $10 million, bringing its market capitalization to over $200 trillion in the next nine years.
BTC can reach $200 billion in the next nine years
In a Twitter thread on Feb. 12, Adam explained that this valuation could be achieved if BTC continues to expand at a 2X rate over the next nine years. Within this time frame, the bitcoin network would have halved its mining rewards twice.
Between January 2013 and December 2022, Adam notes that the price of bitcoin has doubled per year in a pump that has seen prices roar 1200X. This is despite prices fluctuating in a boom-bust cycle, which eventually saw BTC expand to over $69,000 at the peak of the bull cycle in 2021. In 2022, the crypto market saw a price crash. of currencies in all areas. In the dead of winter last year, BTC prices more than halved, falling to a low of $15,300 following fallout from CeFi platforms including FTX.
If bitcoin prices continue to expand as they have in the last ten years, Adam explained, it would be possible for prices to reach the $200 trillion mark that Hal Finney predicted. Hal Finney was among the first after Satoshi to run a bitcoin node in early January 2009 and was confident that BTC would succeed considering its finite number.
While Adam acknowledged that this assessment is “a lot,” it is nonetheless doable. The only concern he noted was that growth could slow as more bitcoin derivatives are introduced. In his opinion, the more derivative products like ETFs, ETPs, and bitcoin futures, the more liquid the currency will become. Subsequently, the volatility of the currency will be reduced due to the greater depth of liquidity.
Bitcoin HODLers are essential for volatility
It is also betting on rapid adoption due to hyperbitcoinization to boost the currency’s valuation. According to his analysis, bitcoin does not have to absorb $100 trillion in value for its market capitalization to reach $200 trillion or more. This is because BTC liquidity is tight and there are HODLers to consider. Also, with hyperbitcoinization, it will be more difficult for people to sell their reserve, which will affect liquidity and therefore feed into volatility.
Going forward, Adam said that he would closely watch how BTC prices develop while also monitoring adoption. The more users have custody of their coins, the better the volatility of BTC and therefore the price.
