The news that Tesla will likely unveil its long-awaited and much-debated self-driving robotaxi at the Warner Bros. movie studio in Los Angeles underscores the ground the company needs to cover to catch up with its rivals in the autonomous driving space. It also unwittingly provides a ready-made metaphor for the kind of Hollywood tricks Elon Musk and company will undoubtedly need to employ to convince their backers that Tesla’s driverless technology really is ready this time.
During the weekend, Bloomberg reported Tesla planned to use the film studio in Burbank, California, to reveal its next-generation robotaxi on Oct. 10 (the event was originally scheduled for Aug. 8 but was delayed after Musk ordered more work on the prototype).
Tesla needs to catch up with rivals in the autonomous driving space
It was an interesting decision considering that Tesla likes to hold these kinds of events on its home turf. But as Bloomberg As noted, the 110-acre site contains more than two dozen sound stages, including fake suburban towns that could be an ideal location for testing an autonomous vehicle that isn’t yet ready for prime time. These include townhouses, brownstones, and a small virtual downtown, all ready for a robotaxi demonstration.
The report gained further credibility after a Tesla software hacker known online as x.com/greentheonly/status/1830339085556170816″>@greentheonly pointed out At x, the company had begun collecting mapping data in and around the film studio just days before the report. Green, who has gained some notoriety in Tesla circles by reviewing the source code for Tesla software updates, said the company was also collecting data at other locations, including the still-under-construction Tesla Diner in Santa Monica and “various parts of SF and the Bay Area.”
The revelation that Tesla is collecting data on these areas ahead of its robotaxi event suggests a couple of things. First, the company wants to make sure its driverless tech demonstration goes off without a hitch, so it’s mapping out the areas it could operate in. That seems like sound reasoning. Tesla has a lot riding on this event, given Musk’s recent comments that the company should be viewed primarily as a robotics company.
“We’re an ai and robotics company, and if you value us any differently, it’s impossible to give the right answers to the questions that are being asked,” Musk said earlier this year.
It’s crucial for Musk that the company shift its core business of making and selling electric vehicles toward robotics and autonomy, especially as Tesla’s sales continue to decline globally. Tesla’s market capitalization is equal to the value of nearly every other automaker in the world combined. Much of this value is based on Musk’s promises to not only drive the electrification of the auto industry, but also to “solve” autonomy by releasing a truly revolutionary vehicle that can drive itself. Whatever Tesla unveils on October 10 should prove that this is possible.
Tesla has a lot at stake in this event
Any Tesla fan would be quick to point out that every other autonomous vehicle operator also collects geographic data before rolling out their robotaxis. Waymo, Cruise, and all the others are focused on making their self-driving systems work in geofenced areas of cities. But how Electrification rightly points outTesla has long maintained that its system would be different if it used data collected from its fleets of regular vehicle owners, who send camera footage to the company for annotation and labeling.
With all this data, Musk has boasted that Tesla would not be subject to any geographical limitations. In other words, a true “level 5” autonomy: a driverless car that could travel anywhere and in any conditions.
Of course, that’s not what we’re going to see on October 10th. Tesla will likely show off a pretty good demo of a self-driving car driving around the Warner Bros. lot, or through downtown San Francisco, or at the Santa Monica Supercharger. But the idea that any Tesla owner could just push a button and send their self-driving vehicle out into the world to start generating passive income as a robotaxi in the near future is ludicrous.
That’s because of all the glaring holes in Tesla’s approach to autonomy. For one, the company got rid of its radar and ultrasonic sensors and now relies solely on cameras as part of its sensor suite. This approach lacks the redundancy that is a key component of higher-level autonomous systems that include radar, ultrasonics, and lidar to reproduce a 3D environment around the vehicle. If some debris or mud hits one or more of the cameras, the vehicle would essentially be driving blind. That’s not going to work for a lot of people.
There are glaring gaps in Tesla's approach to autonomy
This also reinforces earlier reports that Tesla's “data annotators” have been giving “special treatment” to Musk and several Tesla influencers when training the neural networks for its autonomous system, according to a Business information investigationThis suggests the company's efforts to develop a truly autonomous system are being misapplied and may not be sufficient for what Tesla claims to be attempting.
Another weak point in Tesla’s strategy regarding autonomous driving is legal liability. To date, the company has been unwilling to accept any liability for accidents related to its driver-assistance features, Autopilot, and Full Self-Driving. In fact, Musk even laughed when asked if his company would accept legal liability for its autonomous vehicles in the future. “There are a lot of people who assume that we have legal liability,” Musk said, “judging by the lawsuits.”
This strategy has worked so far. Last year, Tesla won a lawsuit that attempted to blame Autopilot for a 2019 crash. But if the company tries to roll out fully autonomous vehicles, like Waymo or Cruise, it’s hard to see how it can continue to avoid liability. There have been thousands of accidents involving the company’s Autopilot vehicles, and at least 44 deaths. Even one death in a Tesla self-driving vehicle would be a disaster.
We'll know more when the company finally reveals the secret on October 10. Perhaps Musk could ask some of his friends in Hollywood for a little help in smoothing out the rough edges of whatever is revealed.
